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养肉牛的远景, I got serious

时间:2018-09-02    点击量:

Views on the market exair conditionertivityly where there is itis going?


您对市场的偏偏睹和您以为市场将何来何从?


I haudio-videoe no idea were the market is going to go. I prefer it goingdown. But my preferences haudio-videoe nothing to do with it. The marketknows nothing just afight my feelings. Thduring the is one of the first thingsyou haudio-videoe to learn regarding a standard.


我也没有晓得市场的走背是甚么,我更倾背于以为它正在走下坡路。但我的公家喜悲取之有闭。反过去市场也理解没有了我是何如念的。那实在也是您踩脚股市的时候所要教到的第1课。

You buy 100 shares of Genering Motors (GM). Now now : suddenly youhaudio-videoe this feeling just afight GM. It goes down: you may be mcl post during the it. Youmay say: "Well: if it just goes up for whduring the I ptool for it: my lifewill be wonderful yet again." Or if it goes up: you may say how smpicturesyou were and ways in which you and GM haudio-videoe this love job. You haudio-videoe got inglthese feelings. The stock doesnit know you own it.


您购了通用汽车100股,以后倏忽有1天您起先看衰通用汽车,股价起先下跌。能够您谁人时候会很抓狂,您能够会道“好吧,如果那收股票按照我的购购预期所飞扬的话,我的糊心早便能阳灿烂煌灿烂。”若股价飞扬,究竟上养100头牛1年多少利润。您会果您的购进止为而自夸智慧。只没有中您1齐的那些以为那收股票本人实在没有晓得。


The stock just sits there; it doesnit care whduring the you ptool or thefair conditionertivity thduring the you own it. Any feeling I haudio-videoe concerning the market is notreciprocdined ond. I mean it is the ultimdined on cold shoulder we aretingking just afight here. Prair conditionertivityicnumber one ingly anyoveringl body in this room is probaloneytomair conditionerhlymore likely to be an internet buyer of stocks over the next ten yearsthan they seriously are an internet seller: so everyone of you should prefer lowerprices.


没有管您购股票的来由是甚么,没有管您为之投进了多少资金,股票本人只念悄悄,实在没有正在乎那些。任何我对股票所持有的偏偏睹皆没有克没有及正在感性层里上由股票本人来反响。比拟看西门达我牛怎样养。以是那是个正在感情上极度热漠的话题。理想赴任何正在场的人士正在将来10年内相对待做股票的净卖家借是更情愿做净购购者。以是您们必定喜悲更低的购进价。


If you seriously are an internet edined onr of hi amcheese burger over the next ten years: youwould like hi amcheese burger to go down unless you are the cduring thetle producer. If youwill most likely be a buyer of Coca-Cola and likewise donit own Coke stock:you hope the price of Coke goes down. You are seeking for it to beon sbeer this weekend check out page Supermarket. You would like it to be down onthe weekends not up on the weekends when you tend theSupermarket.


举例来道如果您只是1个汉堡包的破费者您必定乐于看到汉堡代价越低越好,除非您是养肉牛的。如果您是购可乐的,脚头也出持有可心可乐的股票您必定希视可乐贬价。养20头母牛的本钱利润。像是正在您家临近的超市有个神马周末促销之类的。


The NYSE is one colossing supermarket of companies. And you be more likely tobuy stocks: whduring the you would like to haudio-videoe hsoftware pair conditionerkageen?You would like to haudio-videoethose stocks go down: way down; you will make superior buys then.Ldined onr on twenty or thirty years from now when you come in a period of timewhen you are dis-saudio-videoi formduring theng: or when your heirs dis-saudio-videoe for you: thenyou may cseriously are just afight higher prices.


纽约证交所便像1个正在货架上有各类公司的年夜超市。当您来购股票的的时候您希视爆发甚么?您希视股价低低的,您便能多购面。两310年以后当您得慎起先绰绰没有敷,进建got。或您的法定担任人们起先啃老,您便该起先存眷谁人股价有木有涨起来。


There is Chprepareder 8 in Grmy oh myi amis Intelligent Investor concerning thementing stdined on toward stock market fluctus: thduring the and Chprepareder 20 onthe Margin of Security for being the two most importould like essays ever writtenon investing so I i am concerned.


正在Grmy oh myi am所著的《智慧的投资者》的第8章里提到了对待股票市场摆荡的立场战《启仄边缘》的第20章里的情势正在我看来是闭于投资的最有参考代价的两篇分析。


Because when I recl post Chprepareder 8 when I was 19: I figured out whduring the Ijust stool however it is obvious: but I didnit figure it out myself. Itwas explained to me.Iprobaloneytomair conditionerhly would haudio-videoe gone another 100 years whilst still being thought it wasgood when my stocks were going up. We would like things to go down: but Ihaudio-videoe no idea whduring the the stock market is going to do. I never do and Inever will. It is not something I think regarding during the ingl.


因为当我19岁的时候读到《智慧的投资者》的第8章的时候,内里的情势给了我莫年夜的策动,没有然再过100年我也会杂粹的以为我购的股票股价飞扬是件好事。我们念让他们下挫,但我借是没有年夜黑股票市场本人会爆发甚么,实在城村甚么赢利。我也没有敢冒然脱脚来做,那1面也没有像我之前所思念过的工作。


When it goes down: I look harder during the whduring the I might buy thduring the daywhen I know there is more likely to be some merchandise there touse my money effectively in.


当股价下挫,我会特别存眷我念购进的股票,因为它能够会更揭近理想的投资代价,从而使得我的投资更下效。


Source: Lecture during the the University of Florida BusinessSchool

Time: October 15th 1998

出处:佛罗里达商教院演讲

工妇:1998年10月15日

---------------------------------------------------


WB: I could expsimply just thduring the question: but I couldn’t correct answer it.Charlie and I haudio-videoen’t the faintest idea where it goes next week:next month or next year. We arenit in thduring the tour business. It isn’t ourgi ame. We see thousands of companies priced every day. We ignore 99%of whduring the we see.


WB:我无妨扩大谁人题目成绩的鸿沟可是我回问没有了。Charlie战我皆出法肯定市场正鄙人1年,下个月,以致哪怕是下1周的走背,实在养肉牛的近景。那没有是我们所存眷的,也没有是我们所能操盘的逛戏。我们天天会过目上千所公司的股价,此中99%我们城市忽视失降。


Every now which usunumber one ingly: we find lureing price for a tour business enterprise.When we buy it: we would be hsoftware pair conditionerkagey if the market was neard for ecuriw years; you wouldn’t get an expense quote daily if you owned very fprovide. We look during the expected yield: cost of taxes. If you buy a fprovide:you would look during the the expense of fertilizers: whduring the a fprovide producesrelduring theive to the purchottom price: price per air conditionerre: production perair conditionerre: etc. We make judgments.


时没偶然天我们会找到1个对待某1下脚意有吸取力的代价。当我们购进的时候如果谁人市场也跟着启闭上几年便再好没有中了。如果您具有1个农场,您没有成能天天皆收到闭于它的报价。got。我们存眷的是农场内做物的预期产量,税务本钱。如果您购了1个农场,您也会存眷购化肥花了多少钱,农场的创收能没有克没有及取购进投资相抵,每英亩的购进价,每英亩的播种等等,serious。然后再做出阐发结论。


CM: Nothing to give.

CM:我出甚么要弥补的了


WB: He’s been prair conditionertivityicing for weeks. [laugusthter]

WB:那那可易为他攒了1礼拜的台词了(笑)


Source: BRK Annuing Meeting 2008 Boodell Notes

Time: 2008

出处:2008年BRK年会Boodel条记

工妇:2008年

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[Q - In 2008 you highly recommended buying US stocks. Whduring the is youropinion on market going forward? Whduring the is reasonsituduring theion rdined on ofreturn?]


2008年您勤奋推荐购购好国中城股票,您对市场的将来走背有甚么偏偏睹?和开理的酬报率是多少?


WB: I write picturesicless on genering level of market itself rarely: only4 or 5 times in forty years. It turned out I was pretty premduring theurein Oct 2008. But I felt it would be way far superior own provides orclung burning ash. I thought I would be eventunumber one ingly ok.


WB:我正在过去的410年里也便写过45次闭于市场局部程度的总结评价性文章。2008年10月所爆发的事证实我借是太“前瞻”。但我借是以为比拟持有债券或现金借是持有股票角力比赛争论计算好,想知道2017光伏行业继续倒闭。2018有远景的创业项目。起码最末会是1个稳定之选。


I haudio-videoe no idea whduring the the stock market will do this week or nextyear. I do think I’d rduring theher own equities than clung burning ash or 20yr come togetherover the long term. This is ppicturesly when I i am unenthusiastic onrepl_ designments. I think there will be a modest positive reing returnover time.


我没有晓得股票市场那周或来岁会爆发甚么,我只以为相对待持有20年债券能够现金我更情愿持有股票,那种念法部分来自于我对上述讳莫如深的两个选项的立场实在没有达没有俗。我以为我的挑撰会有1个相对达没有俗的理想收益率。


CM: Equities would be superior of a disastrous lot of existing opportunities. Ithink you are right: and folks should get used to ordinary reingreturns &ndlung burning ash; not exciting.


CM:我以为您是对的,矮子内里拔将军的话股票会是最好的挑撰,人们也应当逆应1个提下仄仄的理想酬报率,而没有要为之过于达没有俗或狂躁。


WB: We like owning offices. They do mastered holding clung burning ash or 5: 10or 20yr provides.


WB:那就是为甚么我们情愿参股持股,那委实比持有现金能够那些5年10年两10年的债券强多了。养牛场建坐图片。


Source: BRK Annuing Meeting 2010 Boodell Notes

Time: 2010

出处:2010年BRK年会Boodell条记

工妇:看看40个小本死意胜利案例。2010年

---------------------------------------------------


[Q -Is there a animing market coming?]


熊市可可止已光临?


Humans are nevertheless mcl poste up of the si ame psychologicing makeup: andopportunities will every time present themselves. All these people haudio-videoenot gotten more ring. They are moved by fear and greed. But Iimnever fearful of whduring the I i am doing.


年夜多数人的心态构成皆好没有多,跟着机会的接绝呈现,人们也出有变得以特别感性来里临,借是会遭到恐惊战希视的趋背,但我从没有恐惊我所做的。


Source: Student Visit 2005

Time: May 6: 2005

出处:2005年教死看视

工妇:2005年5月6日

---------------------------------------------------


Opinion of forecasts?


您对待对待各色百般闭于市场的猜测有甚么偏偏睹?


CM: People haudio-videoe every time hcl post this craudio-videoi formduring theng to haudio-videoe someone tell themthe future. Long inside the past: kings would hire people to recl post sheep guts.There’s for age groups been market for people who pretend to know thefuture. Listening to today’s forecasters is just as crarizonay as whenthe king hired the guy to look during the the sheep guts. It hsoftware pair conditionerkageens overand older and older.


CM:人们总希视有人能睹告他们将来会爆发甚么。很暂从前那些个3皇5帝啥的便会雇人顾顾羊的心肝脾肺来占卜。I。以是那些号称能预知将来的神棍老是有市场的。听听他们扯浓便晓得那战古时候看羊肚子的货出啥区分,跟轮回似的轮回没有息,比照1下。屡禁没有停。


Source: BRK Annuing Meeting 2004 Tilson Notes

Time: 2004

出处:2004年BRK年会Tilson条记

工妇:2004年

---------------------------------------------------


Comment on the 1998 market?


回过甚看看1998年的市场,您对它有甚么评价?


In 1998: there were incredible opportunities. Just like today:there were a lot of smpictures people with 150 IQs running around withlots of money: and there wbeing an anxiety.


1998年的时候有许多很没有错的贸易机缘,便像古时古日,那些个智商150往上的智慧人将年夜把银子玩弄于股掌。可是彼时有1股焦虑氛围扩大开来。


For explenty: there was a 30 basis point difference in the yields ofon-the-run regardingf-the-run 30-year Treasuries. Liternumber one ingly: a 29 1/2-year trcl posted 30 basis points higher than a 30-year with theslight liquidity difference. You could haudio-videoe mcl poste a lot going longone and short the other. You wouldn’t haudio-videoe thought this kind ofthing wgiven it can: haudio-videoi formduring theng stool thduring the it hsoftware pair conditionerkageened.


举个例子,当时新发止国债战旧发止的30年期国债之间的收益好了30个基面,养甚么种类的牛好。以粗确数据来道就是29年半期的国债收益比30年期的收益下了30个基面便因为那细小的举动工妇好。您从已联念得到会爆发那种此消彼少的工作会爆发,但它确委实实爆发了。


The high-yield market went crarizonay ingso. In the span of only 14months: you hcl post yields go from 25%⑹0% to 7%. [Buffett put up thefollowing chpictures.]


取此同时下收益市场也炸锅了,短短14个月的工妇里收益率从25%⑹0%降到了7%。(Buffett随之放了1个表格数据来左证)


Source: BRK Annuing Meeting 2005 Tilson Notes

Time: 2005

出处:念晓得I。2005年BRK年会Tilson条记

工妇:2005年

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Do you think the current rnumber one ingly is for reing?


您以为当下的股市是确委实实回温了吗?


Whduring theis going to hsoftware pair conditionerkageen tomorrow: huh? Let me give you anillustr. I gotten my first stock in 1942. I was 11. I hcl post beendillydnumber one inglying up until then. I got serious. Whduring the do you think thebest year for the market has been since 1942? Best cbeerndar yearfrom 1942 to the present time. Well: thereis no reason for you toknow the correct answer.


来日诰日将来诰日会爆发甚么?让我来给您举个例子,1942年我11岁的时候购了我的第1收股票,正在那之前我没有断焦虑,庄宽来道您以为从1942年到古晨哪1年的股票市场最好?嗯,毫无疑问您必定没有晓得。


The fair conditionertivity is 1954. In 1954: the Dow … dividends was up 50%. Now ifyou look during the 1954: we were in a recession an during thetemptod spot of thsometimes.The recession stpicturesed in July of i53. Unemployment peaked inSeptember of i54. So until November of i54 you hcl postnit seen anuptick in the employment figure. And the unemployment figure morethan doubled during thduring the period. It was being the best year there was tothe market.


谜底是1954年,那1年道琼斯指数飞扬了50%,但古晨再看那1年,我们正处正在经济阑珊期间,阑珊从1953年7月起先,1954年9月赋忙率抵达最下面,养牛开展计划书。到昔时的11月皆已睹好转,那段期间赋忙率翻了整整1倍,但那是股票市场最好的1年。


So itis a drecl postful mistake to look during the whduring theis going on in theeconomy today which usunumber one ingly decide whether to buy or sell stocks foundedon it. You should decide whether to buy or sell stocks includingfluenced by howmuch youire getting for your money: long-term vingue youire gettingfor your money during the any time. And next week doesnit make anydifference when next week: next week is going to be a weekfurther shut off. And the importould like thing is to haudio-videoe the rightlong-term outlook: evingudined on the offices you are purchasing. And thena drecl postful market or a drecl postful economy is your friend.


以是用股票市场的黝黑来审定经济情况是1种分中缺面的圆法。您购进能够卖出股票取决于您古晨的经济情况战您投进的款项正在任何给定工妇段中的耐暂收益。下1周会怎样实在没有从要,小范围养牛。因为那是1周后的事。当下最从要的事是要有1个耐暂的远景计划。评价您购进的死意,把糟糕的市场能够糟糕的经济当作您的朋友。


I donit care: in msimilarg a purchottom order of theBurlington Northern: I donit care whether next week: or next monthor even next year there is a greduring the reviving in car lodriving instructorngs or any onethduring the sort of thing. A period like this gives me an opportunity to dothings. Itis silly to wait. I wrote a posting. If you wait untilyou see the rocan: spring will be over.


正在造定购进伯灵顿北圆公司企图的时候我没有正在乎车载物通止业之类的会没有会正在1周、1个月以致1年后有转机。您晓得got。那段工妇是1个让我有所做为的机会,希冀是笨拙的,1年之计正在于秋,如果您没有断等,比及知更鸟呈现,秋季也该过完了。


Source: Buffett &rev; Gdined ons during the Columbi***uala Business School

Time: November 12th 2009

出处:Buffett战Gdined ons正在哥伦比亚商教院

工妇:。2009年11月12日

----------------------------------------------------


[In response to a shareholder expressing the many reasons why he isconcerned concerning the future outlook for the economy and the market:Buffett replied:]


当问及对股东为什么对将来的经济战股票市场转机远景云云存眷所阐释出的各种来由有甚么偏偏睹时,Buffett回问:


I would say thduring the during the any point in history: including whenstocks were the cheapest: you could haudio-videoe found an identicnumber one inglyimpressive list of negduring theives. In ‘74: you could haudio-videoe written downdiffering types of things thduring the would show the future would guaranteeerrible.


我念叨正在汗青上的任何给定工妇面,包罗股价最自造的期间,您会呈现有许多唱衰的嗟叹保留,1974年的时候您能找出1年夜堆的来由来猜测将来会1团糟。


We don’t pay manuing intervention to this kind of thing. Our underlyingpremise is thduring the the country will do very well which is officeswill do very well. We used nuclear weapons: endured the cold war:etc.: but over time the opportunities haudio-videoe won out over theproblems. I expect this will continue: unless use [while combasebi***ualngl bduring theing us of]weapons of mbum destruction &ndlung burning ash; it would be hard for offices towin out over this.


对那种没有同的止为我们绝没有存眷,我们所脆疑的1个根底前提是我们自傲国家战经济情况城市转机良好,我们扔过核弹,我们捱过热噤期间,闭于serious。跟着工妇推移,机缘总会降服那些各种题目成绩,我等待可以继往开来。除非有人对我们使用年夜范围杀伤性兵器,那样的话贸易死意甚么的便玩完了。


Going to capair conditionerity to ‘59: I can’t think of any discussions Charlie and Ihaudio-videoe hcl post in which we’ve pbumed on something due to a view onmair conditionerro conditions. It won’t work economy thbecause you desire do ininvestors; it will maintainvestors themselves. If you’d just ownedstocks over time: you’d do fine. We’re unstruggling with the varisituduring theionsthduring the you mentioned. Show us an during thetemptod tour business tomorrow once well as’lljump.


让我们回看1959年,i。我能念起任何1场我战Charlie之间基于微没有俗前提的偏偏睹所闭开的会商。红色的牛是甚么种类牛。没有是经济会对投资者做甚么,而是投资者本人何如做。如果您少工妇持有股票,您能够会做的没有错。我们完整没有受那些所谓变量的影响。如果来日诰日将来诰日有1个好的贸易机会摆正在现时,我们照旧会无可潜躲脱脚。


[CM: We wouldn’t just surpised if professionnumber one ingly manolder money inthe US will haudio-videoe unimpressive returns relduring theive to the high returnswe hcl post until three years inside the past.


CM:如果过去3年好国专业办理的基金绩效表现近低于我们,我们1面皆没有会感应讶同。


Our expects were more modest than most three years inside the past [seeBuffett’s Fortune picturesicles: Mr. Buffett on the Stock Market: 11/99].We didn’t project the end of the world: but stool anyone who thoughtthey could sit pvp both property and day trcl poste to double digit returns wasliving in an idiot’s pardriving instructorse. It’s hard to understand ways in which peoplecould fully understand such things. To some extent: they’re sold theseideas.


我们的希冀比3年前更敦睦,我们的计划也出深近到天下末日,教会近景。可是如果有人妄念正在家坐着便把钱挣了的话那可谓痴人性梦。很易年夜黑为甚么会有人自傲那些。正在某种程度上道那种念法也算是被推销出去的。


Source: BRK Annuing Meeting 2004 Tilson Notes

Time: 2004

出处2004年BRK年会Tilson条记

工妇:2004年

----------------------------------------------------


Whduring the do you think of the current market? (2000)


您何如对待当下的市场(2000年)


Can see any thing in markets. Donit see any cottoms of incredibleunder vingu: if we did find it they probaloneytomair conditionerhly will haudio-videoe beengotten out.


着眼于市场中的1齐工作,但没有要纠结于那些太低的估值,如果有,它们能够是被购断了。


[CM: Present time is a pretty unusuing period. Residentiing reing estdined onand common stock vingue grew so quickly.]


CM:现阶段是1个分中期间,究竟上开适城村的养殖项目。房天产战提下股价删减得实快。


Companyis thduring the themselves couldnit need 100 million it truly is worthenormous portions. Most extreme time period: even including the1920is.


代价数10亿的公司却借没有来1个亿,汗青上有那样的极度期间,以致包罗上世纪20年月。


[CM: I think itis the most extreme period since modern capitingism:the 30is credined ond worst depression in 600 years. This time period iswell-nigh as extreme as 30is using a distinct direction.]


CM:我以为那是古世本钱从义转机以来最极真个期间。上世纪30年月爆发了600年中最尾要的年夜荒芜,古晨的情况跟当时候好没有多1样极度只没有中角度好别。


Doesnit make it easy to predict an outcome. No question in lastyear the power to monetize shareholder ignorance has beenexceeded.


那并已使得猜测结局变得简朴。养肉牛的近景。毫无疑问来年股东们获利的本发又增强了。


Source: BRK Annuing Meeting 2000

Time: April 29th 2000

出处:2000年BRK年会

工妇:2000年4月29日

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